A newly developed climate service provides information on how local societies’ vulnerability and exposure to climate change may change in future, enabling municipalities to assess the adequacy of current adaptation responses.
Atna River near Rondane. Photo credit: Shutterstock
As the adverse effects of climate change are expected to increase, there is also a growing demand for climate services that provide information on future climate scenarios, crucial for advancing preparedness efforts by local governments. Jan Ketil Rød from The Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) has led the development of a new climate service designed to monitor climate risk in Norwegian municipalities, on behalf of The Norwegian Research Centre on Sustainable Climate Change Adaptation (Noradapt).
“This is an important step towards providing decision-makers with holistic climate services encompassing all four determinants of climate risk”, says Rød.
Introducing response as a climate risk determinant
So far, many local climate services have focused solely on future climate conditions, thus addressing only the hazard component of climate risk. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), however, has recently expanded the IPCC risk framework from three determinants (hazard-vulnerability-exposure) to a framework including response as a fourth. Response signifies that if responses aimed at reducing climate risks are not adequate, risks will increase or at best decrease less than anticipated.
The climate service developed in this study provides information on all four risk determinants from the IPCC risk framework, including response. Available data with sufficient coverage and geographic resolution was utilized to enable the establishment of an indicator set representing essential characteristics of the four determinants.
“We argue that it is crucial for local governments and others to receive information not only about how the climate may change in the future, but also on how societal vulnerability and exposure may evolve, and how this will affect municipalities if their current responses to climate change remain unchanged”, says Rød.
Integrated in municipal preparedness processes
Noradapt provides yearly updates of the climate service, and it has been made available to local governments through an interactive StoryMap application, including interactive graphics and illustrative examples.
Regional authorities in the Norwegian counties of Nordland and Troms have already commissioned specific regional analyses based on this national climate service, developing handbooks to guide county administrations in conducting detailed climate risk analyses, addressing both public and private businesses.
“We now aim to utilize the IPCC framework to also encompass nature risk, developing methods for combined climate and nature risk assessments”, Rød concludes.
Read the full article here: Towards a holistic climate service: Addressing all four climate risk determinants
Contact: Jan Ketil Rød